Most people say roulette is all luck. And most people would be wrong, because they would just be repeating what they heard from other inexperienced players.
In short, roulette is not all luck. Consistently winning at roulette is a combination of skill and knowledge. Playing roulette is only about “luck” if roulette spins are completely unpredictable. The truth is they are predictable – at least predictable enough to achieve a significant advantage over casinos.
This article discusses the details: When roulette is just luck, when it’s consistently beatable, and when it’s impossible to beat. So the answer isn’t black and white.
Understanding The Types of Roulette, and Which Can Be Beaten
You can find a lot of online casino review sites that list where to play roulette. For example, the online roulette guide on online-gambling.com/roulette/. But don’t rely on review sites alone, and carefully research casinos before depositing money.
There are three main types of roulette, as per below:
RNG stands for “random number generator”. With RNG roulette, there is no physical roulette wheel. Winning numbers are determined by a software algorithm, like in a slot machine. In fact, RNG roulette is just a slot machine with computer animations of a roulette wheel.
There are some ways of beating RNG roulette, but the options are very limited. In most cases, beating it is not realistically viable. This is because you have no way of predicting the winning number, at least with accuracy better than random.
Rigged roulette is quite rare. Usually it’s provided by unlicensed online casinos. It’s called “rigged”, because the payouts to players are based on amounts they have won and lost.
More specifically, there is no real physical roulette wheel. The interface of the game may seem like a random number generator. But the spin outcomes in the winning numbers are very different.
For example, if you had bet $1000, the return to the player may only be $950. And it it wasn’t, then the casino’s software forces it to be the case. So although you might win in the short term, the casino software forbids you from profiting in the long-term. It’s not much different to theft, which is why it’s typically only used by unlicensed online casinos. So with rigged roulette, all the luck in the world wont make a difference.
This is the only real type of roulette. It involves a real physical wheel and ball. It doesn’t necessarily need a live dealer. Real roulette includes automated wheels, where the ball is released by an air blower.
In this case, the winning number is determined by real and measurable physical factors. This includes but is not limited to the speed of the wheel and ball. So in this case, it’s at least physically possible to predict the outcomes of roulette spins. In other words, you can increase the odds of winning, so your chances are better than random.
It is only realistically possible to beat roulette that involves real physical wheels.
The above quote is one of the most unpopular quotes of all time, when it comes to roulette. But unfortunately it’s the truth. The only exception is by exploiting flawed random number generators, which is an “unrealistic possibility” – as explained on our website.
When Is Roulette Not All Luck
Now we’ve established the only type of roulette that can be beaten. Next, will consider how luck plays a role.
If your system is NOT EFFECTIVE, then you win rate will be no better than random. Let’s put this into context: if your system bet on one number, you’ll average one win every 37 spins on the European wheel. This is because there are 37 pockets on European wheel. In this case, the result of your system is entirely dependent on luck.
If your system IS EFFECTIVE, then you win rate will be higher than random bets. Again I’ll use the example above. So if your system bet on a single number, you might win one in 30 spins. This is despite there being 37 numbers on the European wheel. In this case, the improved odds of winning aren’t just luck. It would be due to knowledge, and skillful application of the system.
Examples of proven effective systems include visual ballistics, roulette computers, bias analysis, and dealer signature. These are among the recommended strategies to play roulette.
How Luck Plays a Role, Even With Effective Systems
Regardless of how effective your system is, anything can happen in the short term.
For example, consider roulette computers. They can achieve an edge over 150% in some cases. This means that if you bet 15 numbers, you would win over 90% of spins.
Why not 100%? Because again anything can happen in the short term.
Keep in mind that casinos have a long-term advantage over average players. But still, occasionally casinos make a loss for the night. This may be because a particular player was very lucky. Despite this, the casino knows they still have a long-term advantage, and will recover losses.
However, casinos don’t call it bad or good luck. They just call it “variance”. Variance is the correct term to describe how things often happen exactly as expected. There is always some slight difference to the expected results. Ordinary players will call it luck. But it’s much the same thing.
Delusion When “Get Lucky” With Random Bets
On a final note, I’ve tested thousands of systems over the years. And it’s quite common for even losing systems to profit over hundreds of thousands of spins. This is usually because they use betting progressions.
Betting progression is where the size of bets are increased after losses. It allows you to profit for some time. But betting progression is like a loan that must be eventually repaid, with interest.
So all you need to win over hundreds of thousands of spins is luck – and risky progression. But it doesn’t make your system any better than risky random bets. You might think otherwise, is all you consider is the end bankroll. You can see proof of this for yourself in our Youtube series about Roulette systems, where we demonstrate even random bets sometimes win.
Nevertheless, the book isn’t closed when it comes to “luck”. There are some strange anomalies that indicate luck may be measurable and not completely unpredictable.
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