The short answer is roulette is the most profitable casino game there is. I know most people would disagree, because they think roulette is completely random and unpredictable. But most people are dead wrong. I have proven many times an edge of over 150% is possible with roulette. This isn’t possible with any other game – not even close.
All Games Are Odds Vs Payout
The first thing to understand is that all gambling games are odds versus payout. This means that a specific event has odds of occurring. Think of “odds” simple as “chance”.
For example, the odds of green zero winning on a roulette wheel are 1 in 37. This is on the European roulette wheel, with 37 pockets. These odds are assuming that all spins are completely unpredictable. But there’s more to the story, as I’ll explain later.
The odds of winning are one thing. Payouts are a completely different thing. The payout is the amount you are paid on a win.
If you are like most gamblers, your bets have random accuracy – regardless of the system you use. This means you will have the typical average win rate. So if you are betting a single number, you’ll average one win every 37 spins. But when win, you are paid 35 to 1. This is an unfair payout, and it’s where casinos get their advantage.
The unfair payout is known as the house edge. Basically the greater the house edge, the greater the casino’s edge over you. Also theoretically, the larger the house edge, the less profitable the game is. But this isn’t necessarily true.
Low House Edge Isn’t Everything
There are numerous casino games with a lower house edge than roulette. For example, even particular bets in Craps have a house edge that is significantly lower than roulette’s. But the problem is you can’t significantly change your odds of winnings with craps – or most other games.
Improving Your Odds Of Winning
Again keep in mind that the odds of winning a completely different to payouts.
What makes you lose isn’t necessarily odds, or the payout. It is specifically the discrepancy between odds and payout. I repeated this because it’s very important to understand.
The key point is you can’t change payouts. The payouts are the casino’s rules. However, it is possible to change the odds of winning with some games.
In a game like craps, it is theoretically possible to control how each dice will roll. In controlled experiments, it has been possible to achieve an edge of around 0.5%. This is in absolute ideal conditions though, and it’s very difficult to apply in real casino conditions. This is for reasons like how you release dice is watched and regulated by the casino staff. You can be banned from play if you don’t comply with guidelines.
The roulette wheel is very different. Rather than spins being random and unpredictable, they are in fact extremely predictable in many conditions. Roulette wheel designers know. But they aren’t about to publicize it.
The truth is it’s nearly impossible for roulette spins to be completely unpredictable. At the very least, it is easy enough to achieve a slight increase in the accuracy of predictions. And a slight increase is usually all you need to overcome the unfair payouts of the house edge.
The Effect Of Slightly Increasing Prediction Accuracy
Consider betting $25 on a single number for 370 spins. On the European wheel, the expected results are as below:
Expected Results With Random Bets
In this case, you have 10 wins. You’ll notice the edge is -2.7%, which is precisely the house edge in European roulette. Over 370 spins, you can expect to have lost $250.
Expected Results With Slight Accuracy Increase
Now imagine making the same bets, but having a win rate of 11 wins in 370 spins. The results for this are below:
Here we can see the edge is positive, which means the player has the advantage instead of the casino.
However, understand that a positive result doesn’t necessarily mean you have a legitimate long-term advantage. Even random bits can win sometimes. But my point of illustrating the above results is so you understand the effect of a slight accuracy increase.
But let’s assume the second set of results represents your long-term advantage. You only need a very slight increase in accuracy to have a massive edge over the casino.
Keep in mind that European roulette has a -2.7% edge against players, and casinos win millions. So imagine what you can do with a 7% edge in your favour. Blackjack card counters get excited with a mere 1% edge. But it’s nowhere near the possible from roulette.
How Is Roulette Predictable?
Firstly, roulette is only realistically profitable on real physical wheels. You cannot realistically profit from random number generators, because no physical wheel is involved. So if you don’t live near real casinos, you could play live casino roulette on onlinecasinohex.nl, or other live dealer casinos.
If you don’t know what to look for, the roulette wheel may look like a flawless mechanical device, with perfectly random outcomes. But once you understand roulette wheel physics, you see spins aren’t random at all. In fact, many casinos consider roulette the biggest threat on the gaming floor. In some states it is illegal for this reason. This is specifically because they know real roulette wheels can be exploited, to give players a massive advantage.
So when you ask is roulette a profitable game, the answer is unequivocally it’s by far the most profitable casino game.
It doesn’t mean you can beat all roulette wheels though. Professional techniques for predicting roulette spins tend to beat almost every wheel, in controlled conditions. But beating real wheels in actual casino conditions is a different matter. It’s not about the physics of the wheel, because again spins are quite predictable. It’s more about needing to avoid detection by casino staff.
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