Almost every roulette system uses progression betting. Specifically progression betting is when you vary the bet size after a win or loss. The most common type of progression is positive progression. This is where you increase bet size after losses. The logic of this is the increased bet size wins back losses and more. But doesn’t actually help you win?
Each Spin is an Independent Event
Assuming the roulette game is fair, each roulette spin is a completely independent event. Putting this into context, you could have many red spins in a row and naturally assume that red is on a streak. But if you test carefully, you’ll understand that the odds of red or black winning next still haven’t changed. You can easily test this for yourself, although I suggest using automated software so you can test a statistically significant amount of spins. It does no good to test over just a few spins.
The first time I learned this was after a big win at the casino. I won a few thousand dollars, and was on the way to the cashier. Then I noticed the winning number display on another roulette table had many reds in a row. My gut instinct was that red had been on a run for some time, and that black was due to spin. So I placed a large stack of chips on black and waited for the spin. To my disappointment, red won again. The streak of red had continued. So on the next spin, I bet black once more with all my remaining chips. And yet again, red won. I had lost all my winnings, but learned a valuable lesson.
Later I created an Excel spreadsheet to test whether or not red or black is more likely after a long run of red. I specifically checked for multiple instances in my spins where there was a long run of red. Then I checked how many times each red and black won next. I found the odds hadn’t changed. Therefore you could say I was a little deluded by betting on black.
Cold Numbers Vs Hot Numbers
Cold numbers are numbers that haven’t won in some time. Hot numbers are numbers that have won frequently in the recent past. Many players build systems around hot or cold numbers. So which system is the best approach? The truth is they are exactly the same. Even if you had perhaps number twenty-eight spin three times consecutively, it may be your gut instinct to bet number twenty-eight for the next spin. But the odds of winning on a European wheel are still one in thirty-seven, because there are thirty-seven pockets. Using the same simulations in my Excel spreadsheet, I tested hundreds of thousands of spins where particular numbers won consecutively. Then I would determine the amount of times the same number appeared on the next spin. And the result is one in thirty-seven times. Of course this is going back around twenty years ago when I didn’t know better.
I lost many thousands of dollars chasing patterns, including hot or cold numbers, when the patterns only exist in my head. Retrospectively, I would have saved myself a lot of time and money if I only listen to what the experts had to say. Now I’m one of the experts trying to explain it to you. I suggest you take the advice and understand what I’m saying.
As it is now, many inexperienced players on roulette forums tend to ignore what more experienced players have to say. I was no different when I was an inexperienced player. I didn’t want to be told what the facts were. I wanted to find out for myself. Perhaps it was ignorance and stubbornness, which is not a good approach for any business venture. The moral of the story is you don’t have to listen to more experienced players, but you will certainly benefit from it.
What About Progression?
Now let’s look at betting progression and how it plays a role. Keep in mind that the odds of a number winning on any spin haven’t changed. When it comes to individual numbers, the odds on the European wheel is one in thirty-seven.
So what happens if we increase the bet size after a loss? All you are doing is changing the amount you risk on individual spin.
An inexperienced player may use aggressive progression such as the Martingale. This is doubling bet size after losses. It is usually applied on outside bets such as red and black. On the first spin, the player may bet one unit. On the second, two units. On the third four units, and so on. It may appear that the bets are connected somehow. But the reality is all you will have made is three independent bets, with different wagers. It’s exactly the same as three different players making three different bets. Does it increase your chances of winning? Not at all. You can either get lucky and win back losses. Or you can be unlucky and lose an even greater amount.
You can test the principles at any of the best UK online casinos. Wherever you test, make sure the casino is reputable and provides fair random games. Casinos based in the UK are licensed by a modern gaming authority, and generally can be trusted. Although of course it’s prudent to first test in a reputable simulator first, without risking real money.
Never use a roulette simulator that promotes any particular online casino. This is because some online casinos use dishonest marketing tactics, where the spin results are quite different to those you experience in games involving real money. Generally the only two roulette simulators you should use our software called roulette extreme, and the multiplayer roulette at rouletteplayers.org. If you use roulette extreme, use only a real spins database because the random number generator used by the software is potentially flawed. To understand why, I suggest researching pseudorandom number generators.
Nevertheless, there are some cases where progression betting is beneficial. Basically only when you already have an edge through the use of advantage play. Although that’s another matter, and beyond the scope of this article.