Author Topic: How you can and can't beat roulette  (Read 5755 times)

Steve

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How you can and can't beat roulette
« on: September 24, 2010, 02:23:17 PM »
Since this forum is new, I'll start off with part of my site that explains what does and doesnt work. The original copy is at www.genuinewinner.com/truth.html

The purpose of this page is to help you understand what roulette is, how it can and cannot be beaten, and WHY. Feel free to refer others here so they too don't waste their time developing completely ineffective strategies.

 

What is roulette?

 

Roulette is simply put a wheel and a ball. The ball and wheel spin, the ball falls and bounces around before finally coming to rest in a pocket.

 

Why do most players lose?

 

Most players lose because the casino offers unfair payouts for wins, and their strategy doesn't address this issue. Using a single number as an example, on the European wheel, there are 37 pockets. But instead of a fair payout, the casino pays you 35 to 1. This means if you bet on a single number for 37 spins, on average you can expect to win once. On that one win, you will get 35 units, plus the unit you bet. This will leave you with 36 units. If the payout was FAIR, you would have ended up with 37 units. Once you understand this, you see even when you win, you still actually lose. This situation of "unfair payouts" is called the "house edge".

 

Independence of spins - do spins affect each other?

 

Do previous spins affect future spins? This is a tricky question. Most professionals would outright tell you NO. But the fact is when a ball lands on one number, and the ball is spun again, the previous winning number IS connected, but the spins are still two different events and they do not exactly "affect" each other. Consider the following two scenarios. We assume the wheel is physically perfect:

 

Scenario 1:

 

The ball lands on 32 (spin 1). The dealer then spins the wheel again, and again the ball lands on 32 (spin 2).

 

Scenario 2:

 

The ball lands on 15 (spin 1). Now the wheel and ball are now respun with exactly the same force, and the ball lands on 15 again (spin 2).

 

My point of the above example is in both scenarios, we had exactly the same ball and wheel speed. So what was different about each scenario? The previous winning number was different, and this meant the next winning number was different.

 

So do previous spins affect future spins? Well, not exactly, but they are linked, although this applies ONLY on real wheels where there is a physical wheel and ball. If it were software roulette (RNG), the actual winning number is based on random number generators, which have nothing to do with any real wheel and ball, or physics (in the traditional sense), so previous spins have no connection at all to future spins.

 

How do most people try to beat roulette?

 

There are many "fallacies" players use to develop systems. Below are the most common ones, and WHY they don't work.

 

 

Something is "due" to happen:

 

On the roulette wheel, nothing is ever "due" to happen. Even after 10 reds in a row, the odds of black spinning are still less than 50/50. If you don't believe me, do through testing. One way to do this is use an Excel chart to create millions of results with either R (red) or B (black). Even better, use software such as Roulette Xtreme although you'd need to know how to code it. You could probably find people to code for you free on roulette forums.

 

Now assuming you are doing it manually, check to see various points where there are 10 reds in a row, then each time this happens, see how many times red and black are next. You will need the situation of 10 reds in a row to happen realistically thousands of times to get a realistic idea of the results. What you will find is the odds of black spinning next are EXACTLY the same, whether there was one red, 10 reds or whatever. Nothing changes.

 

However, many systems are based on the principle of waiting for something to not happen, then betting based on the concept of it being "due". In this sense, previous spins have nothing even vaguely to do with future spins.

 

 

The "balance" and averages will tell you which numbers are due:

 

Let's say over 10,000 spins, 45% are black, and 55% are red. Would you bet black thinking the "balance" will eventually occur? If you think this, you haven't learned what I've written above. The odds are no different no matter what present "imbalance" of red/black there is. Don't believe me? Test it thoroughly for yourself, as countless others have before you.

 

 

Progression (increasing / decreasing bet size):

 

If you increase the bet size to cover losses, all you are doing is creating the opportunity to either get very lucky and win big, or blow your entire bankroll in spectacular fashion. You need to keep in mind no matter what has happened in previous spins, the odds of an event taking place are still the same. I'll give an example:

 

You wait for 10 reds in a row, then bet on black thinking it is due. But red spins again. You then double up your bet, but lose again. This happens again and again until you reach the maximum bet at the table, then even if you win, it makes no difference and why? Because the payouts are unfair, so when when you win, you still actually lose.

 

Even if there were no table betting limits at all, the situation would be no different. But the reason casinos have betting limits is because someone could get very lucky, and bankrupt them with huge winning bets.

 

 

Law of a third:

 

This is another rubbish fallacy, and it is a so-called law that states out of any number of spins, approximately 1/3 of them will be repeat spins. This is basic probability, not some magical law that changes anything. It does not change the accuracy of your predictions AT ALL.

 

 

How can roulette be beaten?

 

Einstein once said the only way to beat a roulette table is to steal money when the croupier wasn't looking. Many people interpret this as him saying you cannot beat roulette. What he said was about the TABLE, not the game of roulette. Einstein said you cannot beat the table, and he is right. This is because the table is a scattered representation of the wheel, and it is scattered and "randomized" for good reason: you cannot predict the exact number where the ball will land, but you can realistically predict the general area on the wheel the ball will land - not with perfect accuracy, but enough to overcome the issue of the unfair payouts.

 

Putting this into perspective, consider two scenarios:

 

Scenario 1 - Guaranteed losing player

Player 1 is betting reds only. Reds are every second pocket. There is no way this player can determine where the ball will land within the accuracy of 1 pocket. Because the payouts are unfair, this player is guaranteed to eventually lose their bankroll.

 

Scenario 2: Player that at least has a chance of winning consistently

Player 2 can skillfully observe the ball when it is at a slow speed, and based on the wheel position when the ball has approximately 6 or so seconds before falling, he/she can determine where the ball is more likely to land. Of course they aren't god so they can't be 100% accurate, but they achieve an accuracy better than completely random. And since the house edge is only around 2.5% (the payouts are only marginally unfair), the slight accuracy he/she achieves is enough to win consistently, even over tens of millions of spins (assuming they had that kind of time). Like the casino usually takes your money with a small house edge, this player will slowly but surely profit.

 

To summarize, the ONLY way you can beat roulette consistently is by increasing the accuracy of predictions. UNLESS YOUR METHOD DOES THIS, YOU EVENTUAL LOSS IS A SCIENTIFIC AND MATHEMATICAL CERTAINTY.

 

 

How to increase the accuracy of predictions

 

Roulette has nothing to do with the betting table. The winning number is determined by a wheel and ball. And now that you know the only way to beat roulette consistently is by increasing the accuracy, the question is: HOW do you increase the accuracy of predictions?

 

This is not as hard as you'd think. Keep in mind the house edge (unfair payouts) are only minor, so you only need relatively minor accuracy to overcome it and win consistently. When blackjack card counting was all the rage, the best players were only getting 2-3% edges, whereas with roulette, you can literally achieve over an 80% edge. So you can understand why for professional casino players who know best, roulette is the best choice. Beating roulette may be trickier than blackjack, but when you do it right, the edge is far, far greater. For myself personally, I know I'd rather not spend days and days at the blackjack table for a tiny edge, when it is quicker and more profitable at the roulette wheel when done right.

 

Ok now we are aware that roulette is all about a wheel and ball, and we are aware of the unfair payouts and the need to increase accuracy of predictions. So HOW do we increase the accuracy of predictions? In other words, how do you determine where a little ball will fall? Voodoo perhaps? Betting progression? Think about the most logical approach before continuing... What would Einstein, a physicist look at? What rules govern the behavior of a little ball? Physics, of course.

 

If you're new to roulette, you'd probably think predicting where the ball will land with any kind of accuracy is impossible. After all, the ball bounces all over the place, right? Truth is there are actually countless ways to achieve predictions that not only overcome the house edge, they obliterate it.

 

You need to understand in reality it is much more difficult for a roulette wheel developer to create a wheel that produces truly unpredictable spins than it is for a knowledgable player to predict spins with enough accuracy to overcome the house edge. There are wheels that produce spins that are quite difficult to predict, but by no means impossible - and with such wheels, or any wheel, it is almost impossible for casinos to maintain the wheel in a state whereby spins are at a maximum of unpredictability. So while you may initially think spins are unpredictable, there are actually many legitimate methods to predict roulette spins, and beat roulette consistently.

 

Below are some of the "traditional" methods:

 

1. Roulette Computers (my favorite): Electronic devices that are legal in most jurisdictions. They take timings of the wheel and ball to predict where the ball is most likely to land. The player then makes a late bet before no more bets is called.

 

2. Visual Ballistics: this is basically what a roulette computer does, but by using your eyesight. It is less effective than computers, but legal everywhere. Visual ballistic techniques form part of the techniques I teach.

 

3. Bias Analysis: exploiting physical imperfections of wheels. Yes you may have heard biased wheels don't exist today. The truth of the matter is EVERY wheel is imperfect to some degree, and every wheel has at least some bias. But rarely is this bias alone strong enough to overcome the house edge. As part of the course I offer, you learn how to conduct a proper analysis for wheel bias.

 

Once these methods were secret, casinos didn't believe roulette could be beaten, and only those that used them knew about them. Now they are somewhat common knowledge to professional players and casinos alike, and you'll occasionally see TV documentaries about players having won millions. While there are actually quite a few other methods, they are today's secrets, and tomorrows TV documentaries.

 

If you think you can't possibly predict spins, with enough accuracy to overecome the house edge, with bets BEFORE the ball is even released and on modern wheels the "experts" consider unbeatable, you are very wrong - and you will know this perhaps when it is too late to take advantage of the knowledge. Casinos have a growing awareness of the newest techniques to beat roulette, but they are still largely ignorant. Many are starting to implement procedures (countermeasures) that make application of the latest techniques more difficult. However, I still have never found a wheel I'd consider impossible to beat. In my experience, every wheel is beatable one way or another (even without electronics), but not every wheel is "practical" to beat. A wheel may be "impractical" to beat for varied reasons, such as it only spinning once every 5 minutes which is simply too infrequent.

 

In conclusion, don't bother with outside betting. If you understood that I've wrotten, you'd understand why outside betting is suicide. Don't bother with betting progression. The only way to beat roulette is by understanding the physics of the roulette wheel. This will enable you to determine what patterns are likely to form, how to represent such patterns in a practical form, and how to apply the knowledge. If you'd like to know more about my methods, start by reading my site, and/or purchase the book "Living Energies" by Callum Coats - this and dilligence will lead you to types of patterns that are exhibited on every wheel, and the casinos appear to know absolutely nothing about them.

 

 

Put into simpler terms:

 

If the above is too much information for you, the below is simpler:

 

1. No matter what the previous spins were, they do not at all change the odds of one or another number spinning next.

 

2. As per #1 above, no matter how you select where to bet, looking at previous spins in any way does not determine the future (with the exception of real wheels and understanding physics)

 

3. If you increase bet size after losses, combine points #1 and #2, and you'll understand all you're doing is just increasing the amount you'll either win or lose on the next spin.

 

These facts are IRREFUTABLE. If you understand them, you will understand why almost every system fails.

 

For example: let's say you waited until over 100 spins, there were 80 reds and only 20 blacks. You may think there are bound to be more blacks soon, so you bet on black. But you are wrong. The odds of black spinning next are exactly the same as they've always been, so you are still going to lose.

 

Another example: you see 10 reds in a row, and bet on black thinking it is due. But the odds of black spinning next has not and never will change. Red spins again and again, and you keep doubling your bet. Each time you double your bet, you are NOT increasing your chances of winning - you are increasing the amount you are likely to lose. What will happen is you will either get lucky and win, or blow your bankroll. This may give you some good short term profits, but if you continue to do it, you will absolutely definitely eventually deplete your bankroll. It might happen the first few spins, or you might get lucky and end up profiting after about 100 spins.

 

I have seen RNG systems win after 10,000 spins, but does this mean they are legitimate long term winners? No! It just means that over those 10,000 spins, the system has been very lucky. Try it over a different 10,000 spins and chances are the results will be quite different. Even constantly betting red alone with no system at all can give you a profit over 10,000 spins.

 

Final advice: Don't try to correlate spins to each other unless you are dealing with a real wheel. If you ARE dealing with a real wheel, understand the relationships between spin has nothing to do with anything being "due" - it has to do with the physics of the wheel.

twister

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Re: How you can and can't beat roulette
« Reply #1 on: October 04, 2010, 12:44:04 PM »
that sums it up nicely  8)