The truth isn’t always popular. In the same of the best way to beat roulette, most players want a system that’s simple to learn and use. For example, wait for 3 reds to spin, then bet on black. Then just double your bet after losses until you win. But simplistic approaches like this don’t work.
What Doesn’t Work, and Why
Almost every roulette system doesn’t even consider the winning number. It may sound strange, but it’s true. In the above example, nowhere was the winning number predicted. The player just expects that after a few reds, that black is more likely to spin next. But it isn’t. The odds of red and black spinning next wont have changed. So what is the point of waiting for 3 reds to spin before betting? None at all.
Concepts like this that are based on delusions of a player are called “gambler’s fallacy”. And almost every roulette system is based around the same nonsense, so it’s no surprise that almost all systems lose.
The Difference Between Odds and Payout
Understanding this point is critical. Most sports betting and gambling websites treat odds and payouts to be the same thing. For example a sports betting site may say a team has 5-1 odds to win. But what they really mean is the payout for a winning bet on the team is 5 to 1, meaning if you bet $1 and win, you get $5 back. So really they’re talking about the PAYOUT.
But ODDS are a very different thing. Odds are basically the probability that something will occur. In our sports betting example, maybe the team’s best players aren’t playing due to injury. This may dramatically reduce the probability (odds) that the team will win.
Generally the odds and payouts are related. But basically in sports betting, the payouts are based on what bettors consider the probability to be. So if everyone thought a particular team would win, then everyone may bet on it. This would reduce the “payout” to almost 1 to 1, in which case there isn’t much point to betting.
On this note, the best way to win roulette is the same way as winning at sports betting. And that is to identify risk vs reward. In other words, to profit with sports betting, you need back value bets. In other terms still, bet only when there are high odds, and high payout. It makes no sense to bet on something with low odds and low payout.
The Odds vs Payouts in Roulette
The payouts in roulette are all fixed. For example, a win on a single number pays 35-1. And if the spins were totally random, then the odds of winning would never change.
But the fact is roulette is not a random game. Wheel designers spent a lot of time to make spins as unpredictable as possible. But unfortunately for them, it’s almost impossible to manufacture a wheel that has truly unpredictable and random spins. One example is the effect called “dominant diamonds”, which is explained on the home page of this site. Basically if you observe 30 or more spins, you will find the ball tends to hit specific diamond more often than others. Often the same 2 diamonds are hit on almost every spin. Is this random? No of course not. And this ball behavior inevitably contributes to predictable spins.
The Best Ways To Win at Roulette
The central best way to win is to predict where the ball will land. This means you will attempt to improve your odds. Remember you can’t change the payouts, but you can change the odds.
Using the example of dominant diamonds, you can know approximately where the ball will fall. So to have an approximately idea of where the ball will come to rest, you just need to know approximately what numbers will be beneath the dominant diamond WHEN the ball falls. And then estimate how far the ball will bounce. This approach is called visual ballistics, and there’s a free visual ballistics training video on this website.
There are in fact numerous legitimate methods that improve your chances of winning roulette. Again remember you are increasing the odds of winning. And it’s really not as difficult as you may think, because roulette physics is not at all complicated.
Is Using Roulette Physics Difficult?
the word “physics” may make you think of complex mathematical equations. But firstly keep in mind the house edge is only a small -2.70% (for European wheels). And this is how casinos make billions. It’s only a small advantage, where they pay you less than you should, if the payouts were fair. So the house edge simply means “slightly unfair payouts”.
Now because the casino’s normal edge over you is only slight, you only need to slightly improve your odds of winning, then you have the advantage over the casino. Putting it into perspective, there are 37 numbers on the European wheel. With random guesses of the winning number, you’ll be right 1 in 37 times. But if you have even a marginally effective method to predict the winning number, you may be right about 1 in 34 times. And that’s all you need to achieve a slight advantage over the casino. In fact it will produce an edge that’s close to what professional blackjack card counters get. And they can make millions.
How Accurately Can Roulette Spins Be Predicted?
Believe it or not, technology exists that can predict spins to the exact winning number, with 1 in 5 accuracy. That means if you bet on a single number, you can win 1 in 5 spins. This is a huge advantage over the casino. But this kind of accuracy is rare. With modern and professional roulette strategies, the accuracy is typically around 1 in 20. So if you bet on a single number, you can expect to win 1 in 20 spins. That’s far better than the 1 in 37 you’d expect with random accuracy.
Once you come to understand professional roulette strategies that really work, you realize the real key to consistently winning roulette is avoiding detection by the casino staff. Because no casino will tolerate a consistent winner. Although with an understanding of casino procedures, it’s actually quite easy to earn large sums without ever being detected.